On November 9, 2018, the 31st BBS in China machine tool industry development and operation situation in 2019 seminar held smoothly in taicang, jiangsu province, China machinery industry federation, deputy director of expert committee of Cai Weici report for the current operation situation of mechanical industry, director tsai said, throughout the current operation situation of mechanical industry, the first few months basic keep running smoothly.

The first nine months were basically stable

In the first nine months of this year, the machinery industry basically maintained a stable operation. From January to September, the accumulated revenue of main business reached 16.2145 trillion yuan, up by 8.15% year on year. The growth rate was 2.52 percentage points lower than the same period last year (10.67 percent), and has been on the decline for five consecutive months since may. In 2018, the growth rate of profit decreased significantly, from higher than the growth rate of main business income last year to lower than that of main business income. From January to September, the accumulated profit of the machinery industry reached 1.06 trillion yuan, up by 2.85% year on year. This is 10.84 percentage points lower than the 13.69 percent growth rate in the same period last year and 5.3 percentage points lower than the 8.15 percent growth rate in the same period last year.

Based on this, director CAI will "situation" of the word split interpretation, he said, from the current situation, "shape" - overall stable, the growth rate is lower than the previous year, but higher than the industrial average level; "Momentum" - steady in the change, the first half of a slight upward, the second half of a slight downward, the industry differentiation intensified. CAI predicted that in 2018, the annual growth rate of value-added, main business income and export will be slightly higher than 7 percent, while the profit growth rate will be lower than 7 percent. The downward pressure on growth next year will be greater than that of this year, and the growth rate will be similar to or slightly lower than that of this year.

From January to September 2018, the cumulative output of cars reached 20.491 million, up 0.8 percent year-on-year. Passenger car production was 17.351 million, up 0.1 percent year-on-year. Commercial vehicle output was 3.141,000 units, up 5.2 percent year-on-year. Production of new energy vehicles reached 73.5 units, up 73 percent year-on-year. In the january-september period, year-on-year output growth slowed down by 2 percent, 1.8 percent, 2.5 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, compared with the january-august period. The main sub-industry operation situation is obviously differentiated: the construction machinery industry prosperity is the best, continue to maintain high growth; Petrochemical general machinery boom has picked up significantly; The manufacturing of other investment products, such as heavy mining machinery, machine tools, instruments and meters, basic components, internal combustion engines and other industries, maintained a stable operation; The growth rate of electrician and automobile industry was down, especially the profit growth rate was obviously down. Due to the heavy weight of these two industries, it had a great impact on the whole machinery industry. Agricultural machinery industry, the overall decline in the output of major products, economic indicators continued to decline; Cultural office machinery by the export and camera production and sales declined significantly, the boom is poor.

In recent years, the production and marketing situation has the following characteristics:

First, products that are closely related to consumption and people's lives are in good shape and growing at a faster pace. Although most agricultural machinery products went down, especially the yield of farming and harvesting machinery generally decreased significantly, but post-harvest processing machinery, primary processing machinery of agricultural products and special equipment for feed production achieved rapid growth. Compressors and power tools for refrigeration and air conditioning equipment also maintained rapid growth. Second, the investment type of mainframe products generally entered a stable growth period, the car is to low-speed growth period. Third, products that are closely related to intelligent manufacturing, technological transformation and upgrading are doing well. For example, the production and sales of all kinds of instruments have generally achieved double-digit growth. Fourth, compared with the host industry common ups and downs, the volume of a wide range of supporting products growth is relatively stable, the growth rate is good. Such as: ac motor, rolling bearings, hydraulic components, valves and other growth rate is relatively high.

The year-on-year growth rate of import and export trade turned from negative to positive

According to customs statistics, from January to August, China's export of machinery and equipment reached 282 billion us dollars, up 15.5% year on year; export of means of transport reached 80.1 billion us dollars, up 16.5% year on year; export of instruments and meters reached 46.8 billion us dollars, up 3.5% year on year. In the same period, imports of machinery and equipment reached us $135.8 billion, up 25.9 percent year-on-year, imports of means of transport reached us $74.4 billion, up 10.2 percent year-on-year, and imports of instruments and meters reached us $67.9 billion, up 8.8 percent year-on-year.

Estimation of the progress of transformation and upgrading

In recent years, the machinery industry has made progress in its transformation and upgrading, and some achievements have been made. A small number of these enterprises have performed well and played some role in meeting the challenge of the downward growth rate. As far as the whole industry is concerned, the "unbalanced and inadequate" structural problems have not been significantly alleviated.

Forecasts for the growth rate of the machinery industry this year

Based on the above analysis, the basic judgment is that in 2018, the growth rate of the machinery industry will decline on the basis of the relatively high level of the previous year. The growth of industrial added value, main business income and export is expected to be slightly higher than 7%, while the growth of profit is expected to be lower than 7%. The growth rate will be lower than in 2017, higher than in 2015 and similar to 2016. From January to August, the entire society used 4.53 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity, up 9 percent year-on-year, according to the China electricity federation. Among them, manufacturing electricity consumption increased by 7.1% year on year. From this observation, the macro economy is indeed stable, in which the upstream industry is better than the downstream. In the machinery industry, the output of ac motors and rolling bearings increased by 6.84% and 8.40% respectively from January to September. According to this judgment, the overall stability is indeed credible.

In addition, CAI also pointed out the main difficulties in economic operation, which are: insufficient overall demand; The cost rises too fast, the price of raw materials rises too sharply, the labor cost rises rigidly; Accounts receivable and finished goods inventory increased rapidly, the amount of arrears is too large; Environmental law enforcement is one size fits all and simple. Macroeconomic data can be seen that the overall macroeconomic environment is still relatively stable. Stable macroeconomic environment is conducive to the demand situation of the machinery industry to maintain stability; But the trend of change is slightly slow down, which also warned us to the future of the machinery industry growth rate of slow downward pressure in the increase, to be prepared for this.

Finally, director CAI concluded, "there are some external factors that play a role in the difficulties faced by the machine tool industry today. Over the years, the policy of encouraging the import of advanced equipment has objectively drained the high-end orders that the domestic machine tool industry relies on to upgrade, and put the domestic enterprises in the unfair competition. Although some of the policies also declared to encourage the revitalization of the machine tool industry, but "give money to policy, give policy as to the market". Once the order lost this most precious resource, the industry also lost the most critical opportunity to upgrade. It must be noted that despite many difficulties and severe challenges, the machine tool industry has made rapid progress in recent years. Now has been basically can satisfy the processing equipment for power generation equipment, ship manufacturing, the manufacturing equipment required for the aerospace field has a breakthrough, four process of automobile industry, the domestic press line and painting line has entered the world advanced, welding, assembly line and engine cylinder block cylinder head machining line is also in the rapid progress of localization. Therefore, we should never put ourselves down. We must be firm in our confidence in continuing to promote self-determination. Especially gratifying is that the machine tool industry is the rise of a group of strong vitality of private enterprises. In recent years, their excellent performance in 3C and aerospace industry shows the hope of the industry. At the same time, the reform and innovation of state-owned enterprises are not deepening. After the competition in the market, the great waves of sand, ji 'nan out of the two machine tool so famous in the world some star enterprises. We firmly believe that China's machine tool industry will be revitalized.